Analysis on the market status of PCB upstream glass fiber industry
According to the analysis of the market of glass fiber industry in China, glass fiber is widely used in the fields of building materials, petrochemical, automobile, printed circuit board, wind power blade, electronic and electric, new energy and so on. The demand growth is synchronized with the macro economy. The market situation of China's glass fiber industry in 2016 is analyzed. Since 2014, with the further improvement of the United States and EU economy, the growth trend of the overseas glass fiber market is clear. The global growth rate of global glass fiber demand is expected to be around 6% in 2015~2019, and the growth rate of domestic glass fiber demand is higher under the demand of wind power and traffic, and it is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of 8~10% in the next five years.
At present, the market situation is improving. On the one hand, the demand for the downstream wind power, thermoplastics and other applications has been improved rapidly. On the other hand, the effective control of the production capacity and the optimization of the product structure have also been benefited to avoid the homogenization of competition. However, the current application market of the downstream composite materials industry is not fully recovered, while the market for wind and thermoplastic products is rewarming rapidly, and the adjustment of automobile, ship, petrochemical, construction, electronic communication and other industries is still in progress. Therefore, on the one hand, the industry should continue to control the rapid growth of production capacity, to prevent a new round of relative surplus of production capacity, on the other hand, to follow up the adjustment of the downstream industry in time, and do a good job of market application research and product upgrading.
The price of products has increased steadily, and the economic efficiency of the industry has been greatly improved. In the first half of 2016, the main business income of the glass fiber industry was 71 billion 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.65%; the main business cost was 50 billion 700 million yuan, up 7.41%, and the total profit was 4 billion 760 million yuan, up to 26.39% from the same period. Steady growth in market demand, tight supply and demand, and steady increase in product prices have led to a significant increase in the overall profit level of the industry.
As one of the most important international activities of the composite industry, the international glass fiber annual meeting, hosted by Chinese giant stone, has developed into a high level exchange platform for the global composite industry related enterprises. The new technology forum and the latest products release and promote the industry to build self-discipline and competitive environment, to a certain extent, has become the vane of the development of the global glass fiber industry.
Affected by cold repair, new capacity is limited, and global fiberglass supply growth is slowing down.
The global fiberglass industry is oligopolistic. The capacity of the six largest manufacturers accounts for about 70% of the world's total, and domestic glass fiber production accounts for 60% of the world's total. In the next 2-3 years, the world's new production capacity is limited, mainly concentrated in China; and the domestic glass fiber production line has entered the cold repair peak, and the impact of supply is relatively small. The uncertainty factor comes from the delay of cold repair plan for domestic enterprises under good industry prosperity, resulting in the relatively centralized release of capacity for 15-16 years. However, considering the influence of cold repair, the overall new supply has little impact.
The fiberglass industry is in good condition, and the company is the leader of the industry.
The global demand for glass fiber is warming up in the United States, Europe and other countries. The downstream application of glass fiber in China is becoming more and more extensive, and the growth of wind and thermoplastic materials has brought a good industry boom. In addition, the supply elasticity of fiberglass industry is small, and global supply is mainly in China. China's megalith strategy, cost leadership, and actively prepared to extend the industrial chain downstream, the proportion of high-end products will continue to improve. The company has high elasticity of performance and can continue to benefit from the good prosperity of the fiberglass industry. The company is expected to be 15-17 years EPS 1.20, 1.34, 1.43 yuan respectively, the company as the industry leader is stable, the current main products are biased on the upper reaches of glass fiber products, the valuation level is slightly lower than the long sea stock, medium technology and so on, give the target price 34 yuan, corresponding to the 2016 25 times PE, for the first time to cover, "buy" rating.
External demand growth is weak, and product structure optimization is steadily advancing. In the first half of 2016, the total export of glass fiber and products was 619 thousand tons, 2.89% compared to the same period, 1 billion 20 million yuan for export, 1.31% compared with the same period, and the export average price of 1652 US dollars / tons, up about 90 US dollars / tons compared with the same period in 2015. Compared with the rapid growth of exports in the same period in 2015, the volume of exports decreased slightly in 2016, indicating that the external demand market once again fell into a weak position, which is worth our vigilance.
In the first half of 2016, the total export of glass fiber yarn was about 296 thousand tons, accounting for 47.82% of the total export. Compared with the same period in 2015, it decreased by 1.23 percentage points; the total export of glass fiber products was about 255 thousand tons, accounting for 41.2% of the total export, and 0.71 percentage points higher than that of the same period in 2015. The export volume of short cut yarn is about 69 thousand tons, accounting for 11.15% of the total export volume, which is 0.69 percentage points higher than that of the same period in 2015. On the basis of the stable export volume of the industry products, the proportion of exports of deep-processing products has been increasing, and the structure optimization of export products has been steadily advancing.
The export volume of glass fiber roving was about 274 thousand tons, down 4.9% from the same year, the export amount was about 267 million yuan, 1.13% of the same year, 975.2 US dollars per ton for roving export, 37.2 dollars per ton for the same year, the export volume of other glass fiber was about 21 thousand and 700 tons, the same year was 12.12%, the export amount was about 49 million yuan, and 2.55%, and other glass fiber came out from the same year. The average price was 2261.8 US dollars / ton, up 222.1 US dollars / ton compared with the same period last year. The export price of glass fiber yarn is obviously rising.
The export volume of all kinds of fiberglass fabrics was about 93 thousand and 900 tons, up 0.37% from the same period, 28 thousand and 600 tons of glass fiber mat (short felt), 6.2% of the same year, 96 thousand and 600 tons of glass fiber mat (needling felt, sewn felt and so on), 5.18% of the same year, and 32 thousand and 900 tons of other glass fiber products, an increase of 1% over the same period.
In the short term, on the one hand, with the continuous promotion of the transformation of the traditional industries, the traditional industries will be gradually resuscitation and stable after the transformation of the transformation direction and ideas, and the demand for the fiber composite market will be revived and increased. On the other hand, the new industries have a better dependence on the preferential policies in the early stages of development and the development of the preferential policies. There may be ups and downs in the process, which requires scientific anticipation and timely response.
According to the insiders, since 2016, the total control volume of the fiberglass industry has been significantly improved, the capacity structure optimization is obvious, and the market demand has steadily increased. On the other hand, the economic growth of the United States is strong, the European economy is better in the short term, and the growth of the emerging economies is slowing down, which all provide new opportunities for the development of the glass fiber industry.
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